Sep 8th 2010

Time for the Pundits to Take a Deep Breath -Why Democrats Will Not be Routed In November

by Robert Creamer

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: "Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win," available on amazon.com.
Two years ago today, just two months before the 2008 Election, John McCain led Barack Obama for President in the compilation of national polls assembled by Pollster.com. The Democratic polling project at Democracy Corps had McCain up by two points. As everyone knows, on Election Day Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%. A lot can change in 56 days.

Time for the pundits and prognosticators to take a deep breath. Despite all of their dire predictions of Democratic demise, the Republicans have not yet seized control of either chamber and I, for one, predict that they won't any time soon.

Democrats will certainly take losses in the coming Mid-terms. But the odds are good that they will emerge from the elections with working majorities in both houses.

No one doubts that pulling the economy out of the massive ditch into which it careened under George Bush has, and continues to be, a Herculean task. It is, of course, a task that has been made much more difficult by the virtually unified opposition of Republicans to Democratic initiatives to energize the economy. Two years of economic pain have made voters unhappy.
And this difficulty is compounded by the natural tendency of voters to turn out Members of Congress from the President's party in the first Mid-term after his inauguration.
However, six major factors will work to limit Democratic losses.

1).
The voters do not view Republicans as the answer to America's problems. And in fact, a late August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that they actually have a less favorable view of Republicans than Democrats.

It is true that only 36% viewed Democrats positively compared with 43% who view Democrats negatively. But a mere 30% view Republicans positively compared with 43% who view them negatively.

In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters were split down the middle (43% to 43%) as to whether they preferred Republican or Democratic control of Congress. There is every indication that this will be the Republican high water mark as voters begin to focus in on the race and Democrats begin to introduce them -- and their beliefs -- to their Republican opponents.

2).The Republicans' major institutional allies are viewed with even more approbation than the Party itself.
The economy has made voters sour on elites of all sorts. They are furious with Wall Street (10% positive to 53% negative), Corporate America (12% positive to 42% negative), and the Health Insurance Industry (12% positive to 56% negative).
If Democratic candidates do their job of connecting their Republican opponents with their base constituencies, their support will plummet.

The critical issue for Democrats is to establish that they are populist outsiders, not elitist insiders. That dynamic is much more important in the coming election than whether a candidate is a Republican or Democrat.

3)
. There is not a large-scale inclination among voters to reject progressive-Democratic values and adopt conservative-Republican values in their place. When the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked if Government should do more, or whether it is doing too many things, voters divided evenly 47% to 47%. When presented a core Democratic and core Republican message, the same number of voters (25% ) found the Democratic message very convincing as those who found the Republican message very convincing.

4)
. Elections are not simply referenda on the state of the country or the economy. They are choices between two candidates. In a generic context, voters can be angry and dismissive about a current officeholder if they are unhappy with the current state of their lives. But if Democrats do their jobs right, each race will be turned into a choice between two living, breathing people. The more that voters focus on the Republican alternative, the less abstract that choice will become - the more they will become acquainted with the qualities of the alternative. Whereas once they might have been happy to throw the incumbent out, they will become increasingly focused on the fact that he or she will be replaced by someone else who has negatives of his own.

Voters cast their ballots for people - not concepts. One of the big advantages for Democrats this cycle is that many Republican nominees are politically inexperienced radical extremists whose views - once voters learn them - are completely outside of the mainstream of American politics.
The best known are Tea Party-Republican Senate candidates like Sharron Angle in Nevada who wants to replace Medicare with vouchers for private insurance, Rand Paul in Kentucky who opposes the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Joe Miller in Alaska who wants to phase out Social Security, and then there is the potential nominee in Delaware, Christine O'Donnell, who opposes masturbation.

And there are many lesser-known House candidates who are just as extreme in their views - and who have no economic program other than the proposals that were put in place by President Bush, that yielded the worst economic collapse in sixty years and cost eight million Americans their jobs.

Some of the positions these candidates take are downright radioactive. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that only 21% of voters were either totally enthusiastic or comfortable with privatizing Social Security, whereas 68% were either very uncomfortable or had some reservations about it - a difference of 47%. And feelings were intense. Forty-nine percent said they felt very uncomfortable about privatization, while only 9% were enthusiastic.
As they come to know these people - and their views, and other negatives that will be exposed in the course of the campaign -- many of voters who might have considered voting against a Democratic incumbent in the abstract will reconsider.

What's more, many Democrats begin with sizeable positives with voters that they have developed over many years of constituent services, and personal relationships.
Republicans were almost certain they would take the southwest Pennsylvania 12th CD in the special election last May after longtime Congressman Jack Murtha died. But in the end Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns 53% to 46% -- largely on the strength of the personal relationships he had developed over years of working on the Murtha district staff.
You see the same thing in many districts that are in play - or were expected to be in play - this November:

* Democrat Mike Arcuri in NY-24 leads Republican challenger Richard Hanna by 13 points in a Benenson Strategy Group poll.
* Congressman Tom Perriello - who represents the tough VA-5th CD that went heavily for McCain -- is tied with his Republican rival.
* Representative Larry Kissell of North Carolina --who was considered a political dead man walking - leads Republican challenger Harold Johnson by 12 points in a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll.
* An Anzalone Liszt Research poll shows Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is leading Republican challenger Kristi Noem by 9 points in South Dakota, where Social Security has emerged as a big issue in the race.
* Democrat Travis Childers leads his challenger Alan Nunnelee by five points in Mississippi's conservative 5th CD.
* A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll shows Democrat John Adler leading his opponent, John Runyan, by a whopping 17 points.
* A Lake Research Partners poll shows Oregon's Representative Kurt Schrader leading Republican Scott Bruun by 11%.
* North Carolina's Heath Shuler leads his challenger by 17% in western North Carolina's 11th CD.
* Alabama's Bobby Bright leads Republican Martha Roby by 9% according to Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.
* A Garin-Hart-Yang Research poll shows Chad Causey in a dead heat with Republican Rick Crawford to win Northeast Arkansas's 1st CD.
* Democrat Rick Boucher of southwest Virginia leads his opponent by 23%.
* And Jason Altmire of western Pennsylvania leads Keith Rothfus by a massive 27% according to Anzalone Liszt Research.
* In some districts Republicans are hampered by late primaries. In Wisconsin's 8th CD, for instance, Republicans will battle until next week to decide who takes on Democratic Congressman Dr. Steve Kagen. Kagen has had a well oiled campaign operation in place for months and a sharp populist message that resonates with the sprawling Greenbay and Appleton based district.
Democrats will also likely capture a number of formerly Republican and open seats in November.
* Democrat Dan Seals leads his Republican opponent Robert Dold by 13% in the Republican seat left vacant when Republican incumbent Mark Kirk decided to abandon his suburban Illinois seat to run for Senate.
* Democrat Joe Garcia is poised to win Florida's 25th CD after incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart decided to run in a neighboring seat after his brother Lincoln decided to retire from the seat. Garcia made a strong challenge to Mario Diaz-Balart last cycle - and has a well-organized campaign with a robust field operation. What's more he faces an opponent who has been accused in a police report of running a direct mail delivery truck off a busy expressway to prevent it from meeting a mail deadline at the post office. It seems that the mail he did not want delivered, in a previous campaign for State Assembly, accused him of domestic violence.
* In Illinois 13th CD, Democratic challenger Scott Harper is given a chance to beat long-time incumbent Judy Biggert, who has soft support among the suburban district's voters. A Global Strategies poll shows Biggert an early favorite, but after one comparative paragraph describing the two candidates, Biggert falls behind and never catches up.
* In New Orleans' predominantly African American 2nd CD, accidental incumbent Joseph Cao, who came to office after Congressman Bill Jefferson's conviction in Federal Court, will almost certainly be defeated by Democrat Cedric Richmond.
* Many pundits have written off the rest of Louisiana where Barack Obama did not score well in 2008. But Ravi Sangisetty may prove them wrong in Louisiana's 3rd CD, where the combination of a large African American population and white Democrats is more than adequate to allow him to succeed, Democrat Charlie Melancon, who is now running for the Senate. And while polls show Melancon behind incumbent Senator David Vitter, recall that the sitting Senator has spent more than a little time explaining proclivity to utilize the services of prostitutes.

5).
The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats will almost certainly narrow.

Many commentators point to the "enthusiasm gap" that indicates that Republican base voters are more likely to turn out than Democrats. That gap will narrow as it becomes increasingly clear to base Democratic constituencies what is at stake in the election.

Progressives will become more and more engaged as they understand the consequences of a big business, radical right victory in the fall.

African Americans will be especially energized by the attack on the first African American President.

Hispanic turn out will be turbo-charged by the outrageous disrespect shown the Hispanic community by Republicans who propose the elimination of the 14th Amendment to keep Hispanic children from becoming citizens -- and the "papers please" law passed by Republicans in the Arizona legislature.

Young people will step up as they see the specter of the Empire Striking Back.
And turnout will be boosted by far superior Democratic Get Out the Vote operations being mounted by the Democratic Committees.

6). Democratic Campaigns will be better organized and in many cases have more resources.

Under Michael Steele, the Republican National Committee is a mess. While the Republican Senate and House Committees are better organized, both have been hamstrung by their dependence on the RNC.

The Democratic National Committee has been well managed and includes Obama's Organize for America (OFA) operation that has been systematically reaching out to first time Obama voters for months.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has one of the best field operations in years and is staffed with highly-skilled political operatives.

The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee is also well organized and has been blessed with extremist Tea Party candidates that can be introduced in all of their blazing glory to the voters in the 56 days that remain. And in most cases, Democratic Senate candidates have the financial muscle to deliver their message.

The Bottom Line

It ain't over 'til it's over.

While Democrats and progressives have a great deal to do in the next two months; while we should be ever mindful of the tragedy that could befall us if we let down our guard; I believe that Democrats will emerge from the November elections in much better shape than the doomsayers and prognosticators are predicting.

In 1994 Democrats were caught flat-footed by the Republican onslaught. We were completely unprepared to mount a defense.

This year there is a danger that the opposite will be true - that fear and defeatism turn into self-fulfilling prophesies.

Voters don't support losers. They don't support candidates or parties who are always on the defense.

To make certain we win this fall, Democrats have to shake off the doomsaying, and take the offensive. If we act like winners, we'll win November 2nd.

Robert Creamer's recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on  Amazon.com.


Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Mar 18th 2024
EXTRACT: "....the UK’s current economic woes – falling exports, slowing growth, low productivity, high taxes, and strained public finances – underscore the urgency of confronting Brexit’s catastrophic consequences."
Mar 18th 2024
EXTRACTS: Most significant of all, Russia’s Black Sea fleet has suffered significant losses over the past two years. As a result of these Ukrainian successes, the Kremlin decided to relocate the Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland. Compare that with the situation prior to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 when Russia had a secure lease on the naval base of Sevastopol until 2042." --- "Ukrainian efforts have clearly demonstrated, however, that the Kremlin’s, and Putin’s personal, commitment may not be enough to secure Russia’s hold forever. Kyiv’s western partners would do well to remember that among the spreading gloom over the trajectory of the war."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "As the saying goes, 'It’s the economy, stupid.' Trump’s proposed economic-policy agenda is now the greatest threat to economies and markets around the world."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "Russia, of course, brought all these problems on itself. It most certainly is not winning the war, either militarily or on the economic front. Ukraine is recovering from the initial shock, and if robust foreign assistance continues, it will have an upper hand in the war of attrition."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACT: "...... with good timing and good luck, enabled Trump to defeat [in 2016] political icon Hillary Clinton in a race that appeared tailor-made for her. But contrary to what Trump might claim, his victory was extremely narrow. In fact, he lost the popular vote by 2.8 million votes – a larger margin than any other US president in history. Since then, Trump has proved toxic at the ballot box. " -----"The old wisdom that 'demographics is destiny' – coined by the French philosopher Auguste Comte – may well be more relevant to the outcome than it has been to any previous presidential election. "----- "Between the 2016 and 2024 elections, some 20 million older voters will have died, and about 32 million younger Americans will have reached voting age. Many young voters disdain both parties, and Republicans are actively recruiting (mostly white men) on college campuses. But the issues that are dearest to Gen Z’s heart – such as reproductive rights, democracy, and the environment – will keep most of them voting Democratic."
Mar 8th 2024
EXTRACTS: "How can America’s fundamentalist Christians be so enthusiastic about so thoroughly un-Christian a politician?" ---- "If you see and think outside the hermeneutic code of Christian fundamentalism, you might be forgiven for viewing Trump as a ruthless, wholly self-interested man intent on maximizing power, wealth, and carnal pleasure. What your spiritual blindness prevents you from seeing is how the Holy Spirit uses him – channeling the 'secret power of lawlessness,' as the Book of 2 Thessalonians describes it – to restrain the advent of ultimate evil, or to produce something immeasurably greater: the eschaton (end of history), when the messiah comes again."
Mar 1st 2024
EXTRACT: "The lesson is that laws and regulatory structures are critical to state activities that produce local-level benefits. If citizens are to push for reforms and interventions that increase efficiency, promote inclusion, and enable entrepreneurship, innovation, and long-term growth, they need to recognize this. The kind of effective civil society Nilekani envisions thus requires civic engagement, empowerment, and education, including an understanding of the rights and responsibilities implied by citizenship."
Feb 9th 2024
EXTRACT: "Despite the widespread belief that the global economy is headed for a soft landing, recent trends offer little cause for optimism."
Feb 9th 2024
EXTRACT: " Consider, for example, the ongoing revolution in robotics and automation, which will soon lead to the development of robots with human-like features that can learn and multitask the way we do. Or consider what AI will do for biotech, medicine, and ultimately human health and lifespans. No less intriguing are the developments in quantum computing, which will eventually merge with AI to produce advanced cryptography and cybersecurity applications."
Feb 9th 2024
EXTRACTS: "The implication is clear. If Hamas is toppled, and there is no legitimate Palestinian political authority capable of filling the vacuum it leaves behind, Israel will probably find itself in a new kind of hell." ----- "As long as the PLO fails to co-opt Hamas into the political process, it will be impossible to establish a legitimate Palestinian government in post-conflict Gaza, let alone achieve the dream of Palestinian statehood. This is bad news for both Israelis and Palestinians. But it serves Netanyahu and his coalition of extremists just fine."
Jan 28th 2024
EXTRACTS: "According to estimates by the United Nations, China’s working-age population peaked in 2015 and will decline by nearly 220 million by 2049. Basic economics tells us that maintaining steady GDP growth with fewer workers requires extracting more value-added from each one, meaning that productivity growth is vital. But with China now drawing more support from low-productivity state-owned enterprises, and with the higher-productivity private sector remaining under intense regulatory pressure, the prospects for an acceleration of productivity growth appear dim."
Jan 28th 2024
EXTRACT: "When Chamberlain negotiated the notorious Munich agreement with Hitler in September 1938, The Times did not oppose the transfer of the Sudetenland to Germany without Czech consent. Instead, Britain’s most prestigious establishment broadsheet declared that: “The volume of applause for Mr Chamberlain, which continues to grow throughout the globe, registers a popular judgement that neither politicians nor historians are likely to reverse.” "
Jan 4th 2024
EXTRACTS: "Another Trump presidency, however, represents the greatest threat to global stability, because the fate of liberal democracy would be entrusted to a leader who attacks its fundamental principles." ------"While European countries have relied too heavily on US security guarantees, America has been the greatest beneficiary of the post-war political and economic order. By persuading much of the world to embrace the principles of liberal democracy (at least rhetorically), the US expanded its global influence and established itself as the world’s “shining city on a hill.” Given China and Russia’s growing assertiveness, it is not an exaggeration to say that the rules-based international order might not survive a second Trump term."
Dec 28th 2023
EXTRACT: "For the most vulnerable countries, we must create conditions that enable them to finance their climate-change mitigation" ........ "The results are already there: in two years, following the initiative we took in Paris in the spring of 2021, we have released over $100 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs, the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset) for vulnerable countries.By activating this “dormant asset,” we are extending 20-year loans at near-zero interest rates to finance climate action and pandemic preparedness in the poorest countries. We have begun to change debt rules to suspend payments for such countries, should a climate shock occur. And we have changed the mandate of multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank, so that they take more risks and mobilize more private money."
Dec 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "....if AI causes truly catastrophic increases in inequality – say, if the top 1% were to receive all pretax income – there might be limits to what tax reforms could accomplish. Consider a country where the top 1% earns 20% of pretax income – roughly the current world average. If, owing to AI, this group eventually received all pretax income, it would need to be taxed at a rate of 80%, with the revenue redistributed as tax credits to the 99%, just to achieve today’s pretax income distribution; funding the government and achieving today’s post-tax income distribution would require an even higher rate. Given that such high rates could discourage work, we would likely have to settle for partial inequality insurance, analogous to having a deductible on a conventional insurance policy to reduce moral hazard."
Dec 21st 2023
EXTRACT: "Shocks are here to stay, and our task is not to predict the next one – although someone always does – but to sharpen our focus on resilience. Staying the course of politically mandated policies while minimizing the inevitable dislocations is easier said than done. But that is no excuse to fall for the myth of being victimized by the unprecedented."
Dec 21st 2023
EXTRACTS: "A new world is indeed emerging. It will be characterized not only by more interdependencies, but also by more insecurity, danger, and war. Stability in international relations will become a foreign concept from a bygone age – one that we did not fully appreciate until it was gone."
Dec 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "Yet one must never forget that Putin is first and foremost an intelligence officer whose dominant trait is suspicion."
Dec 2nd 2023
EXTRACTS: "In a recent commentary for the Financial Times, Martin Wolf trots out the specter of a 'public-debt disaster,' that recurrent staple of bond-market chatter. The essence of his argument is that since debt-to-GDP ratios are high, and eminent authorities are alarmed, 'fiscal crises' in the form of debt defaults or inflation “loom. And that means something must be done.' ----- "If, as Wolf fears, 'real interest rates might be permanently higher than they used to be,' the culprit is monetary policy, and the real risk is not rich-country public-debt defaults or inflation. It is recession, bankruptcies, and unemployment, along with inflation." ---- "Wolf surely knows that the proper remedy is for rich-country central banks to bring interest rates back down. Yet he doesn’t want to say it. He seems to be caught up, possibly against his better judgment, in bond vigilantes’ evergreen campaign against the remnants of the welfare state."
Nov 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "The first Russia, comprising those living in Russia’s two biggest cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, can pretend there is no war at all." ---- "Then there is the other Russia, the one you find in small towns and villages scattered across the country’s massive territory. Here, the Ukraine war is a source of patriotic pride,"