Jul 3rd 2012

Iran: Staying In Power Trumps Nuclear Ambitions

by Alon Ben-Meir

 

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

The only way the clerical regime in Iran will meet the demands of the P5+1 to end its nuclear enrichment program and comply with the International Atomic and Energy Agency (IAEA) requirements of unfettered inspections of its nuclear facilities is if the Mullahs conclude that they stand to lose their grip on power. The United States and the European community, in particular, must now capitalize on Iran’s growing regional isolation, especially in the wake of the upheaval in Syria and its regional repercussions and the impact of the sanctions, which are now entering a new crippling phase that Tehran may no longer be able to withstand. 

The intense pressure on Iran over its defiance of numerous UN Security Council resolutions continues to cast a dark shadow over Iran’s regional and international standing. After months of failed negotiations, the possibility of an Israeli and/or American attack on its nuclear facilities is approaching a dangerous precipice as Israel and the US have been continuously explicit that “all options are on the table”, including the use of force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran has consistently played for time in order to advance its nuclear program and is hard at work to shield it from potential attack. The international community should have no illusions over the prospect of breakthroughs at the upcoming technical talks in Istanbul on July 3rd.  Unless Iran halts enrichment and permits IAEA inspections, the talks will meet the same fate as all previous negotiation attempts. 

Although, as suggested by the Obama administration, the new crippling sanctions should be given more time to work and may eventually force Tehran to concede, the question is how much longer Iran will continue to resist while racing to insure that its main nuclear facilities become immune to air attacks. There should be no doubt that Iran has and continues to play for time and its behavior only confirms its sinister intentions: Tehran refuses to end the enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, is unwilling to ship its current stock of enriched uranium to another country, and averts pertinent questions by the IAEA while denying IAEA inspectors free access to investigate its Fordo and Parchin plants, among others. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, however, must now be dealt with in the context of what is happening in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring, particularly in Syria, to force the Mullahs to reconsider their nuclear posturing. 

With the imminent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran’s ambitions to become the regional hegemon could soon further unravel, shattering its influence over a predominantly Shiite crescent extending from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. Tehran and Damascus have been strategic allies since the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), in which Syria backed Iran against its fellow Arab state, Iraq. Iran’s interests in Syria are especially critical as Syria acts as the linchpin that provides Iran continued support of its Shiite connection in Iraq and Lebanon, which solidifies the alliance. Iran has a Shiite majority while the ruling minority in Syria is Alawite, a sect of Shiite Islam. Iran’s continued support of Assad’s killing machine by providing funds, arms, and expertise in fighting Syria’s insurgency has made Iran not only complicit in the day-to-day massacres but has painted Iran as the number one enemy of Sunni Muslims. From the Arab youth’s perspective, Iran’s support of the Assad regime stands in total contrast to their aspirations for political freedom and human rights. 

The linkage between Iran’s nuclear program and the upheaval in Syria cannot be overstated. In this context, and with the support of the Arab League, the US and the EU must never give up on the removal of President Assad and his cohorts. In so doing, Iran’s Shiite crescent will be dismantled. Extracting Syria from Iran’s belly will inflict irreparable setbacks to Iran’s regional ambitions, weaken its resolve and force the regime to focus on its own survival as the sanctions become increasingly more crippling. In fact, even before the collapse of the Assad regime, Iran’s relationships with other groups that have acted as the conduit for Tehran’s regional mischief such as Hamas and Hezbollah have frayed as these two organizations in particular are looking to safeguard their own interests. 

Hamas and Iran have historically enjoyed strong bilateral relations and the two have worked in tandem to frustrate Israel’s occupation and undermine its power. As a consequence of Syria’s upheaval, however, the Islamist group has refused to support the regime’s crackdown on its population and decided to abandon its political headquarters in Damascus and relocate it to Doha. The turmoil in Syria has thus severely disrupted the nexus between Iran and Hamas and with that, much of Tehran’s influence on the Palestinians. Moreover, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (of which Hamas is an offshoot) and their full cooperation in the search for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict leaves Tehran limited room for further meddling in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict while its influence diminishes. 

In addition to losing Hamas, Iran’s alliance with Hezbollah is seriously frayed because of Tehran’s inability to continue its past levels of financial and military support of the group due to the intensified sanctions and the dwindling oil revenue while significant amount of what they can spare is tied up in the upheaval in Syria. Syria functioned as the conduit between Iran and Hezbollah but the preoccupation of the Assad regime with his internal strife has broken the chain of causality between the three actors. Though Hezbollah initially offered unqualified support for Assad, the spillover of violence into northern Lebanon has forced Hezbollah to take a more qualifiedstance on the conflict, placing itself in an awkward position between its popular base and Iran’s fraying regional influence.  

Although on the surface Turkey and Iran have maintained cordial and mutually beneficial relations necessitated by Turkey’s need of Iranian oil, the flare-up in Syria has and continues to pose a serious challenge to Turkey’s bilateral relations with Iran. As Syria is gradually becoming the battleground between the Sunnis and the Shiites, Ankara and Tehran will inevitably try to shape the new emerging political order in Damascus, which is bound to escalate the tension between the two competing powers. There is no doubt that with Turkey’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the support of the Arab states, Ankara will have the upper hand in Syria in any overt or covert operation in the inherent conflict with Iran. As such, Turkey will emerge as the bulwark of the Sunni bloc of states while striking a blow against the dwindling Iranian (and Shiite) regional influence. Finally, the recent Syrian attack on an unarmed Turkish reconnaissance plane has pushed Turkey to move toward confronting the Assad regime. Under such circumstances, Iran will be powerless to stop the superior Turkish military and will be forced to watch their diminishing influence in Syria from the sidelines.

Fundamentally, Iran has two choices. One: the clerics may decide to support the Assad regime to the bitter end, flex their muscles through insurgent proxies in Iraq, push Hezbollah to move against Israel, and hasten the protection of its nuclear program from external attack. The choice to lash out in this manner wouldpresumably provide a greater chance to maintain the Syrian regime and Iran’s grip on power. In reality, waging a campaign on all of these fronts will prove extremely perilous and could pave the way to topple the government. 

Two (the more likely option): the clergy sticks to their desire to preserve the regime, something which is paramount and trumps all other considerations. Under such a scenario, Iran may adopt the path of “strategic retreat” and decide tomake significant concessions on the nuclear front and still claim a victory. Furthermore, Iran would lower its regional profile and await another day to reassert itself or it may peacefully attempt to establish its legitimate regional role by virtue of its history, size, location, and resources. This outcome will ultimately depend on the US’ and EU’s resolve to capitalize on Iran’s growing regional isolation and vulnerability by staying the course on the nuclear issue and maintaining the crippling sanctions while remaining absolutely determined to oust Assad and his culprits from power.

Browse articles by author

More Current Affairs

Will High Interest Rates Trigger a Debt Disaster? 
by James K. Galbraith
Dec 2nd 2023
EXTRACTS: "In a recent commentary for the Financial Times, Martin Wolf trots out the specter of a 'public-debt disaster,' that recurrent staple of bond-market chatter. The essence of his argument is that since debt-to-GDP ratios are high, and eminent authorities are alarmed, 'fiscal crises' in the form of debt defaults or inflation “loom. And that means something must be done.' ----- "If, as Wolf fears, 'real interest rates might be permanently higher than they used to be,' the culprit is monetary policy, and the real risk is not rich-country public-debt defaults or inflation. It is recession, bankruptcies, and unemployment, along with inflation." ---- "Wolf surely knows that the proper remedy is for rich-country central banks to bring interest rates back down. Yet he doesn’t want to say it. He seems to be caught up, possibly against his better judgment, in bond vigilantes’ evergreen campaign against the remnants of the welfare state."
Putin's Killer Patriotism 
by Nina L. Khrushcheva
Nov 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "The first Russia, comprising those living in Russia’s two biggest cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, can pretend there is no war at all." ---- "Then there is the other Russia, the one you find in small towns and villages scattered across the country’s massive territory. Here, the Ukraine war is a source of patriotic pride,"
The Rage of the Outsiders 
by Ian Buruma
Nov 27th 2023
EXTRACTS: "I interviewed Wilders in 2005 " ---- "Frankly, I thought he was a bore, with no political future, and did not quote him in my book. Like most people, I was struck by his rather weird hairstyle. Why would a grown man and member of parliament wish to dye his fine head of dark hair platinum blond?" ----- "His maternal grandmother was partly Indonesian" ----- "Eurasians, or Indos as they were called, were never fully accepted by the Indonesians or their Dutch colonial masters. They were born as outsiders." ---- "Ultra-nationalists often emerge from the periphery – Napoleon from Corsica, Stalin from Georgia, Hitler from Austria." ---- "Henry Brookman founded the far-right Dutch Center Party to oppose immigration, especially Muslim immigration. Brookman, too, had a Eurasian background, as did another right-wing politician, Rita Verdonk, who founded the Proud of the Netherlands Party in 2007." ---- "A politician who might fruitfully be compared to Wilders is former British Home Secretary Suella Braverman. As a child of immigrants – her parents are double outsiders, first as Indians in Africa and then as African-Indians in Britain – her animus toward immigrants and refugees “invading” the United Kingdom may seem puzzling. But in her case, too, a longing to belong may play a part in her politics."
Biden and Xi Pick the Low-Hanging Fruit
by Stephen S. Roach
Nov 19th 2023
EXTRACT: "The good news is that the San Francisco summit was indeed an improvement on last year’s meeting. Above all, both sides took the preparations far more seriously this time. It wasn’t just the high-level diplomatic engagement that resumed in the summer, with visits to Beijing by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and climate envoy John Kerry. Equally important was identifying in advance the key issues on which the two leaders could cooperate and eventually agree."
Preparing for a Russian Nuclear Meltdown 
by Bennett Ramberg
Nov 11th 2023
EXTRACT: "It would be naive to hope that the Russian government or US diplomatic outreach would prevent nuclear war in the event of a serious threat to Putin’s political survival. The risk that Russia’s Ukraine misadventure could culminate in nuclear nihilism demands nothing less than a systemic review of America’s options."
The Economic Consequences of the Gaza War 
by Nouriel Roubini
Nov 11th 2023
EXTRACT: " Hamas’s barbaric massacre of at least 1,400 Israelis on October 7, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza to eradicate the group, has introduced four geopolitical scenarios bearing on the global economy and markets. As is often the case with such shocks, optimism may prove misguided."
Certain Uncertainty in the US Bond Market 
by Barry Eichengreen
Nov 10th 2023
EXTRACT: "The last two years have been catastrophic for investors in US Treasury bonds. By one measure, 2022 was the worst year for such investors since 1788. Bond prices are poised to fall again in 2023, making this the first time in US history that they declined for three consecutive years. But now the “smart money” is jumping back in."
The Looming China-Japan Face-Off
by Chris Patten
Nov 6th 2023
EXTRACTS: "China’s economic slowdown could lead the CPC to embrace a militant form of Chinese nationalism in an effort to maintain public loyalty. This would spell trouble for Taiwan, the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, and China itself in the long run. Given the threat posed by China’s assertiveness, it is no surprise that Japan is increasing its defense budget and that other countries have decided to follow America’s lead and explore ways to support Asia’s liberal democracies." .... "The difference between China’s and Japan’s economic trajectories raises the question: Can a corrupt Leninist regime outperform a free society? Whatever the answer, China is facing an uphill battle."
Russian Life Imitates Dystopian Art
by Nina L. Khrushcheva
Nov 2nd 2023
EXTRACT: "Of course, Putin owes his authoritarian mandate to Russians themselves. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russians – reeling from rapid, profound economic changes and the new culture of consumerist individualism – grew nostalgic for the 'strong' state. Their superpower status, historic breakthroughs in space, and grand victories on the battlefield were all long gone. Trading their new freedoms for the promise of renewed imperial glory seemed like a good deal." ----- "After Stalin, the only time the state engaged so openly in such violent repression was under Yuri Andropov, who headed the KGB in the 1970s before becoming General Secretary of the Communist Party in 1982 (he died in 1984). -- Putin, who regards Andropov as a personal hero, has reinstated the Andropov-era 'disciplinary check-ups' of cultural institutions." ------ "We are dealing with people who want 'full revenge for the fall of the Soviet empire.' The empire they want to build will include Andropov-style control over every aspect of Russian life, as well as a grander claim of being anointed by God. Like the Orwellian equation “2+2=5,” it is a story that you would have to be insane – or brutally compelled – to believe."
Solar power expected to dominate electricity generation by 2050 – even without more ambitious climate policies
by Nadia Ameli, Femke Nijsse and Jean-Francois Mercure
Oct 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "The cost of electricity from solar plants has experienced a remarkable reduction over the past decade, falling by 89% from 2010 to 2022. Batteries, which are essential for balancing solar energy supply throughout the day and night, have also undergone a similar price revolution, decreasing by the same amount between 2008 and 2022. ---- These developments pose an important question: have we already crossed a tipping point where solar energy is poised to become the dominant source of electricity generation? This is the very question we sought to address in our recent study."
Hubris Meets Nemesis in Israel 
by Shlomo Ben-Ami
Oct 9th 2023
EXTRACT: "Sooner or later, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s destructive political magic, which has kept him in power for 15 years, was bound to usher in a major tragedy. A year ago, he formed the most radical and incompetent government in Israel’s history. Don’t worry, he assured his critics, I have “two hands firmly on the steering wheel.” But by ruling out any political process in Palestine and boldly asserting, in his government’s binding guidelines, that “the Jewish people have an exclusive and inalienable right to all parts of the Land of Israel,” Netanyahu’s fanatical government made bloodshed inevitable."
Hamas’ Brutal Attack Could Have Been Avoided
by Alon Ben-Meier
Oct 9th 2023
EXTRACTS: "....whereas Israel can prevail militarily over any of its enemies, albeit at an increasing toll in blood and treasure, it cannot stop the most dangerous threat of all—the deadly erosion, resulting from its continuing brutal occupation, of that moral foundation on which the country was established." --- "....the Israeli public must demand the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Netanyahu."
American Tactics vs. Chinese Strategy 
by Stephen S. Roach
Sep 27th 2023
EXTRACT: "......today’s American body politic has little patience for long-term thinking. This was not always the case. George Kennan, first as a diplomat and later as an academic, devised the containment strategy that the United States used against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Andrew Marshall, as the head of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, pushed the envelope on US military strategy. And Henry Kissinger, of course, was the ultimate practitioner of what has been dubbed “Grand Strategy.” "
Down on the Biden Economy
by James K. Galbraith
Sep 23rd 2023
EXTRACT: "In a recent CNN interview, Paul Krugman of The New York Times finds it hard to understand why ordinary American voters do not share his euphoric view of US President Joe Biden’s goldilocks economy – which appears to be neither hot nor cold. Inflation is falling, unemployment remains low, the economy is growing, and stock-market valuations are high. So why, Krugman asks, do voters give Biden’s economy a lousy 36% approval rating?" .... "what matters to working people is not the monthly or yearly price change taken alone. What matters is the effect on purchasing power and living standards over time. Whether these are rising or falling depends on the relationship of prices to wages. When wage growth exceeds price increases, times are generally good. When it doesn’t, they aren’t."
How Global Currencies End 
by Barry Eichengreen
Sep 14th 2023
EXTRACT: "The fundamental lesson, then, is that the issuer of an incumbent international currency has it within its power to defend or neglect that status. Thus, whether the dollar retains its global role will depend not simply on US relations with Russia, China, or the BRICS. Rather, it will hinge on whether the US brings its soaring debts under control, avoids another unproductive debt-ceiling showdown, and gets its economic and political act together more generally."
A Smidgen of Hope 
by Chris Patten
Aug 31st 2023
EXTRACT: "TOULOUSE – The days between Christmas and the New Year often prompt many of us to reflect on the problems facing the world and to consider what we can do to improve our own lives. But I typically find myself in this contemplative state at the end of my summer holiday, during the dog days of August. After several weeks of relaxation – reading books, taking leisurely walks, and drifting in a swimming pool – I am more open to contemplating the significant challenges that will likely dominate discussions over the coming months and pondering how I can gain a better understanding of the issues at stake."
The US Must Not Personally Humiliate Putin 
by Keren Yarhi-Milo
Aug 30th 2023
EXTRACT: "To the extent that international relations is an extension of interpersonal relations, how leaders publicly talk about their adversaries is important. US rhetoric about Putin, as much as shipments of F-16s, can push him – and thus the war – in various directions."
The Crisis of American Leadership 
by Chris Patten
Aug 20th 2023
EXTRACT: "Since the end of World War II, the United Nations has been the cornerstone of the international rules-based order. While numerous other international agreements address issues such as chemical weapons, biological warfare, and regional stability, the UN has been entrusted with the overarching role of maintaining global peace and stability. What made it effective, at least for a while, was the support of the world’s liberal democracies and, crucially, the unwavering commitment of both Democratic and Republican administrations in the United States." ---- "That all changed with the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq, a sovereign country, in the face of fierce international opposition and without the UN Security Council’s approval. In doing so, the US severely damaged its own credibility and undermined the global rules-based system,... "Many of America’s current domestic political divisions grew out of the Iraq War. Whereas presidents like Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated that effective leaders can make the world a safer and better place, even in the face of great adversity, Bush’s presidency showed that the opposite is equally true."
Understanding why burning the Qur’an isn’t illegal in Sweden means looking at the country’s long-held commitment to freedom of expression
by Mårten Schultz
Aug 20th 2023
EXTRACTS: "a period of parliamentary history between 1719 and 1772 called 'the age of liberty'. This marked the end of autocratic monarchy and the beginning of an era of parliamentary power " ---- "This was a period of large-scale legislative projects and freedom of speech became central to the idea of freedom from tyranny. The most important piece of legislation was the Freedom of the Press Act of 1766, a law that aimed to protect freedom of information as a means of promoting democracy. It has been amended since but its tenets remain the same. " ---- "Describing Muslims, to allude to the situation of the Qur’an burnings, as criminals would be criminal. But to burn the Qur’an is in itself not, according to the current formulation of the law, an attack on Muslims. It is rather seen as an attack on the religion of Islam. Such attacks are not illegal because the aim of the attack is not directed against a protected group of people but against a belief – an idea. That is not illegal."
The Real Cost of De-Dollarization 
by Benn Steil
Aug 18th 2023
EXTRACTS: "But if the dollar should lose its privileged place, what could replace it? At present, the euro, which accounts for 20% of global central-bank reserves, is the only currency that could realistically serve as a substitute. Its appeal, however, is undermined by the fragmentation of Europe’s national sovereign-debt markets, as well as lingering doubts about the European Union’s long-term viability in the wake of the UK’s departure.'" ---- "The Chinese renminbi, which accounts for less than 3% of global reserves, is not a serious threat to dollar hegemony. "